Macau gaming revenue up 11.6% in July, portending stronger H2

Halfway through 2025, the Macau gaming industry has reached more than 61% of government revenue expectations for the year.

According to the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, casinos have generated MOP18.6 billion ($2.31 billion) in GGR for July so far, up 11.6% year on year. That brings the yearly total to MOP132.35 billion, an improvement of 36.7% compared to 2024.

‘Good start to the second half’

Last month, authorities trimmed their yearly GGR forecast by 5%, to MOP228 billion, down from the MOP240 billion projected in November, due to economic uncertainties and shifting consumer trends. They also revised expectations for tax revenue to MOP79.8 billion, versus the original target of MOP84 billion.

Analysts likewise tweaked their estimates. “Based on the first-half 2025 GGR trend … we lower our 2025/26/27 GGR assumptions slightly,” wrote Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei. They look for GGR to grow 3.5% next year and 3.4% in 2027 to MOP254 billion.

The Jefferies estimate for 2025 stands at MOP237.00 billion, “in line with [the] market, but higher than government estimates”. Ling and Pei expect GGR growth of 5.7% for the third quarter, down 3.5% from Q2, but “a good start to the second half given that the third quarter is normally a low season”.

They added a disclaimer, “wondering if the strong performance in May/June … will continue in second-half, or whether VIP players just visited Macau earlier this year for the new properties”.

High-end hotels, more entertainment

The new inventory includes luxury digs designed to appeal to premium mass and VIP patrons.

In April, Sands China completed a billion-dollar upgrade of rooms and suites at its Londoner Macao. Capella at Galaxy Macau, a 17-floor tower with 36 “sky villas” and 57 suites, staged a soft opening in May. One-bedroom suites, available starting in September, will go for MOP24,898 per night. MGM China has expanded the premium gaming area and renovated its villas at MGM Macau, and it is adding 60 new suites at MGM Cotai.

Industry fortunes are also riding on the new “concert economy”, which boosted June GGR to MOP21.06 billion, up 19% year on year. According to Macau Business, JP Morgan analysts credited a concert series by crooner Jacky Cheung for the “unexpected seasonal surge”.

Citi analysts said “a glamorous event and concert line-up” could continue to buoy GGR growth into the second half.