An Idiot’s Take on Comparing NFL Week 2 ‘Odds’ at Sportsbooks & Prediction Markets

There is no debate about the NFL’s Game of the Week, with a Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs set for Sunday in Kansas City. But who offers the best odds on what should be an epic tilt: sportsbooks or prediction markets?

We can already hear the screams of, “Kalshi and Robinhood don’t offer odds on NFL games, you idiot!” Full disclosure: I’m a bona fide neophyte when it comes to prediction markets, and less so when it comes to sportsbooks.

When North Carolina legalized sports betting in March 2024, it opened up access to a wide variety of lines at sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and others. The trouble is, you typically won’t find a lot of difference in the odds on offer at these sportsbooks.

Market-making books in Las Vegas, including the SuperBook and Circa (along with a key offshore operator or two) are the first to offer odds for upcoming NFL games, and then commercial books fall in line. The high-volume, low-hold approach used by Vegas books caters to sharp bettors, who help set the market with large bets after the opening line is posted.

Circa Sportsbook operations director Jeff Benson better explains this optimal approach for books.

“From a profitability standpoint, when you have the vig that works for you — meaning the 11 to 10 — do everything in your power to incentivize writing more bets, let that hold total work for you, and utilize the sharp information that you’re getting from your winning bettors to book more to the side that they’re on,” Benson said. “Then write two-way action on what you believe is the correct price. The more bets you write over the long run, the more money you’re going to make.”

So, Who Offers Better ‘Odds’ on Eagles vs. Chiefs?

We’ve established that prediction markets don’t offer traditional sportsbook odds, but let’s answer your question anyway. Prediction markets offer binary contracts based on “Yes” or “No” outcomes that trade between $0.01 and $0.99. “Yes” settles at $1.00 if your chosen outcome occurs and $0.00 if it doesn’t.

In this case, you’re not betting against the house, and the “odds” are determined by the collective opinion of traders and market forces. Some of these traders are market makers that create liquidity and effectively serve as the house.

At the time of this writing, Kalshi offered “Yes” outcomes on the Eagles (53%) and Chiefs (49%) to win the game. Those figures represent the implied probability of each team to win outright (regardless of a point spread). If Kalshi offered them, the moneyline odds would be Eagles (-112) and Chiefs (-102). DraftKings offered the Eagles (-125) and Chiefs (+105) on the moneyline.

Conclusion: You’ll find better “odds” on the Eagles in this market at Kalshi (bet $112 to win $100 on the moneyline). DraftKings offered more favorable odds on the Chiefs (bet $100 to win $105). You can also explore Kalshi’s markets for spread, total, and player props relative to DraftKings.

Remember, Kalshi sits in the middle of two outcomes, acting as a broker. Unlike a sportsbook, it has no liability based on the outcome. Nobody at Kalshi is sweating the Eagles or Chiefs to win, or the game to go OVER with a late field goal. But if Kalshi has no vig, either, how does it make money? Good question.

Citizens JMP Securities noted that Kalshi’s NFL pricing for Week 1 was more expensive than that of DraftKings. The difference, as per the firm, is primarily due to Kalshi’s transaction fees, which average around $1.63 per 100 moneyline contracts and $1.75 per over/under bet, applicable to retail traders. Institutional participants, such as market makers, benefit from reduced fees that incentivize liquidity.

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