AGA Survey Finds 85% of Americans View Prediction Markets as Gambling

A new American Gaming Association (AGA) survey reveals that US adults overwhelmingly classify prediction markets as gambling and want them regulated like sportsbooks.

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, are online platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. Each contract pays out if the event happens, so the market price reflects the traders’ collective estimate of the event’s likelihood.

These platforms operate under federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trade Commission (CFTC). Previously, these platforms primarily hosted contracts related to topics such as elections or weather. However, they have recently expanded into sports event contracts, which now account for the majority of trading volume.

Vast Majority Say Prediction Markets are Gambling

The September 2025 survey, conducted by YouGov on behalf of the AGA, polled 2,025 US registered voters about “sports events contracts,” such as buying a 50-cent contract that pays $1 if the New York Yankees win.

Key findings from the study include:

• 85% classified sports prediction contracts as a form of gambling. Meanwhile, only 6% view them as a financial instrument, such as options or commodity futures.
• 80% said prediction markets should be regulated like other online betting platforms.
• 70% said these platforms are “exploiting a loophole” to operate as unlicensed sportsbooks.
• 84% said operators should be licensed as sportsbooks if they offer sports contracts.
• 65% want state and tribal gaming regulators, not the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to oversee them.
• 69% say states should have the final say on whether to offer sports event contracts in their state.

In a press release, Bill Miller, AGA President and CEO, said: “This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one—and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook.”

“This underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming.”

The AGA is a trade association representing the US casino and gaming industry. That includes commercial and tribal operators, suppliers, and other stakeholders. It regularly publishes research and lobbies on federal and state gambling policy.

Similar Sentiment Toward Sweepstakes Casinos

The YouGov survey echoes another AGA-commissioned report released earlier this summer, according to which most consumers see sweepstakes casinos as gambling.

That survey found that 90% of players on these platforms see them as gambling, with 69% describing them as platforms to wager real money. Two-thirds say they play with the intention of winning money.

Sweepstakes casinos operate under the federal sweepstakes model to avoid being classified as gambling. Still, according to the AGA, public opinion rejects that distinction.

That mirrors the way prediction markets have tried to frame their contracts as financial products — an argument the new survey suggests voters also reject.

Gray Market Shrinking — But Prediction Markets Largely Unregulated

The AGA has separately reported that the share of unregulated gambling has shrunk over the past three years. That coincides with more states legalizing more forms of gambling.

According to the report, unregulated gambling accounted for 31% of the gambling market, down from 33% in 2022. For sports betting, which is now legal in 40 states, the decrease is more significant: 12% since 2022.

Yet prediction markets, which currently sit in a regulatory gray zone, threaten this positive trajectory.

While regulated sportsbooks face strict licensing, consumer protection, and responsible gambling requirements, prediction markets operate with no state oversight, with the CFTC doing little to monitor their growth.

Kalshi is currently facing ongoing legal battles over its status, with some states deeming the platform an illegal operator. Still, as litigation continues, Kalshi remains largely outside the consumer protections typically applied to sportsbooks.

NFL Bets to Hit $30B as Prediction Markets Eye a Slice

Against that backdrop, the AGA has forecasted that legal sportsbooks will take over $30 billion in bets on the upcoming NFL season. That represents an 8.5% year-over-year increase.

Prediction markets are already demonstrating their ability to generate significant sports wagering activity. During the NFL’s opening weekend, Kalshi reported over $303 million in trading volume, with $196 million on Sunday alone. The NFL accounted for 53%.

Even if a fraction of the projected NFL bettors migrate exclusively to prediction markets, they could absorb a significant portion of the sports betting handle. That would threaten the sportsbooks’ volume predictions, resulting in states receiving no tax revenue from it.

The Road Ahead

The AGA’s new survey suggests public opinion has made up its mind: prediction markets are gambling.

While unregulated gambling is shrinking, this fast-growing sector risks becoming the new frontier of unregulated wagering. That’s unless states and the federal government agree on establishing a sportsbook-style licensing framework. Without it, a fast-growing slice of sports wagering could continue shifting into largely unregulated channels.

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